Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction & odds
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie (round 11) on Saturday 31 October 2026. Ajax are #61 in our world ranking and have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5; AZ Alkmaar are #78 and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Our prediction
Our model makes Ajax the favourites at 46%, with a draw at 27% and AZ Alkmaar at 27%.
Rating: 1412
Chance to win: 46%
Last 5: WWWLD
Rating: 1374
Chance to win: 27%
Last 5: LWDWL
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax are #61 and AZ Alkmaar #78 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Ajax (46%). More from the Eredivisie.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 6-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ajax v AZ Alkmaar | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Ajax v AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-14 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 2-0 |
Eredivisie table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 24 | #57 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 21 | #61 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 20 | #39 |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 20 | #75 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 20 | #78 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 18 | #291 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 15 | #170 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 |  Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |