Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction & odds
Alverca host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (round 11) on Saturday 07 November 2026. Alverca are #250 in our world ranking and have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5; Casa Pia are #370 and have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 120 places - in Alverca's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Alverca the favourites at 49%, with a draw at 26% and Casa Pia at 24%.
Rating: 1198
Chance to win: 49%
Last 5: LLWWW
Rating: 1134
Chance to win: 24%
Last 5: LWWLW
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca are #250 and Casa Pia #370 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Alverca (49%). More from the Primeira Liga.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Alverca v Casa Pia | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Casa Pia v Alverca | 0-2 |
Primeira Liga table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 27 | #27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 22 | #14 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 21 | #22 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 14 | #190 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 11 | #250 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 11 | #95 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 9 | 7 | #378 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 7 | #370 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 2 | #420 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |