Arouca vs Nacional prediction & odds
Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga (round 10) on Sunday 01 November 2026. Arouca are #154 in our world ranking and have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5; Nacional are #432 and have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 278 places - in Arouca's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Arouca the favourites at 62%, with a draw at 22% and Nacional at 16%.
Rating: 1280
Chance to win: 62%
Last 5: WWWDL
Rating: 1109
Chance to win: 16%
Last 5: WLLLL
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca are #154 and Nacional #432 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Arouca (62%). More from the Primeira Liga.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Nacional v Arouca | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Nacional v Arouca | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-25 | Arouca v Nacional | 1-0 |
Arouca have won the last 4 meetings.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 27 | #27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 22 | #14 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 21 | #22 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 18 | #186 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 17 | #154 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 17 | #281 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 8 | #454 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 7 | #432 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 9 | 7 | #378 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |