Our model makes Manchester City the favourites at 48%, with a draw at 27% and Aston Villa at 25%.
Aston Villa are #9 and Manchester City #3 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Manchester City (48%). More from the Premier League.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Manchester City v Aston Villa | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aston Villa v Manchester City | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-22 | Manchester City v Aston Villa | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Aston Villa v Manchester City | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-03 | Manchester City v Aston Villa | 4-1 |
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 18 | #3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 15 | #1 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 13 | #7 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 5 | #33 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 5 | #9 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 4 | #49 |
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.