Bahia vs Sao Paulo: result and our prediction
Bahia host Sao Paulo in the Serie A (round 33) on Thursday 29 October 2026. Bahia are #281 in our world ranking and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5; Sao Paulo are #376 and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Our prediction
Our model makes Bahia the favourites at 45%, with a draw at 28% and Sao Paulo at 28%.
Rating: 1179
Chance to win: 45%
Last 5: WDLWL
Rating: 1134
Chance to win: 28%
Last 5: LDWWL
Who will win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia are #281 and Sao Paulo #376 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Bahia (45%). More from the Serie A.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Bahia v Sao Paulo | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sao Paulo v Bahia | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sao Paulo v Bahia | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Bahia v Sao Paulo | 2-1 |
Serie A table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 33 | 54 | #246 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 33 | 54 | #316 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 53 | #281 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 33 | 50 | #271 |
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 47 | #213 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 33 | 44 | #349 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 43 | #376 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 33 | 39 | #521 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 39 | #699 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 73 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 34 | 70 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 57 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 50 |
| 8 |  Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 47 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 44 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 43 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -12 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | -5 | 35 |
| 18 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 19 |  Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -15 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -34 | 21 |