Our model makes Barcelona the favourites at 52%, with a draw at 25% and Real Madrid at 22%.
Barcelona are #4 and Real Madrid #6 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Barcelona (52%). More from the La Liga.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Barcelona v Real Madrid | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Barcelona v Real Madrid | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Real Madrid v Barcelona | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Barcelona v Real Madrid | 4-3 |
| 2025-01-12 | Real Madrid v Barcelona | 2-5 |
Barcelona have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 27 | #4 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 22 | #13 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 21 | #6 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 19 | #29 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 16 | #53 |
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.