Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction & odds
Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga (round 8) on Saturday 31 October 2026. Bayern München are #1 in our world ranking and have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5; Borussia Dortmund are #13 and have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5. Two clubs within a few places of each other in the world ranking.
Our prediction
Our model makes Bayern München the favourites at 67%, with a draw at 20% and Borussia Dortmund at 13%.
Rating: 1830
Chance to win: 67%
Last 5: WWDWD
Rating: 1608
Chance to win: 13%
Last 5: WWWDL
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern München are #1 and Borussia Dortmund #13 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Bayern München (67%). More from the Bundesliga.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München | 1-1 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 17 | #1 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 17 | #13 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 13 | #42 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 13 | #21 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 17 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |