Chaves vs Penafiel prediction & odds
Chaves host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga (round 10) on Saturday 07 November 2026. Chaves are #841 in our world ranking and have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5; Penafiel are #599 and have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 242 places - in Penafiel's favour.
Our prediction
Our model sees Chaves v Penafiel as close to a coin flip: Chaves 35%, a draw 30%, Penafiel 35%.
Rating: 1000
Chance to win: 35%
Last 5: WWDLW
Rating: 1062
Chance to win: 35%
Last 5: WLLWW
Who will win Chaves vs Penafiel?
Chaves are #841 and Penafiel #599 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Penafiel (35%). More from the Segunda Liga.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Chaves v Penafiel | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Penafiel v Chaves | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-15 | Penafiel v Chaves | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-04 | Chaves v Penafiel | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-06 | Penafiel v Chaves | 2-1 |
Segunda Liga table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 18 | #553 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 18 | #715 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 16 | #599 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 15 | #615 |
| 13 | Torreense | 8 | 9 | #444 |
| 14 | Chaves | 8 | 8 | #841 |
| 15 | FC Porto B | 8 | 8 | #878 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 |  Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 |  Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 |  AVS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Tondela | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  União de Leiria | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  FC Porto B | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Amarante | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |