Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction & odds
Chelsea host Manchester United in the Premier League (round 9) on Saturday 31 October 2026. Chelsea are #16 in our world ranking and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5; Manchester United are #20 and have drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5. Two clubs within a few places of each other in the world ranking.
Our prediction
Our model makes Chelsea the favourites at 44%, with a draw at 28% and Manchester United at 28%.
Rating: 1586
Chance to win: 44%
Last 5: DLWWL
Rating: 1567
Chance to win: 28%
Last 5: LLDLD
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea are #16 and Manchester United #20 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Chelsea (44%). More from the Premier League.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Chelsea v Manchester United | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Manchester United v Chelsea | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Chelsea v Manchester United | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Manchester United v Chelsea | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-04 | Chelsea v Manchester United | 4-3 |
Premier League table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 21 | #3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 21 | #2 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 16 | #9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 15 | #7 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 13 | #16 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 11 | #17 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 8 | #37 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 7 | #20 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 7 | #33 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 |  Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 |  Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |