Derby vs Bolton prediction & odds
Derby host Bolton in the Championship (round 15) on Friday 06 November 2026. Derby are #538 in our world ranking and have drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5; Bolton are #641 and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 103 places - in Derby's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Derby the favourites at 45%, with a draw at 28% and Bolton at 27%.
Rating: 1079
Chance to win: 45%
Last 5: DLLDD
Rating: 1051
Chance to win: 27%
Last 5: LDWLW
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
Derby are #538 and Bolton #641 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Derby (45%). More from the Championship.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Derby v Bolton | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Bolton v Derby | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-21 | Derby v Bolton | 2-1 |
| 2022-12-27 | Bolton v Derby | 0-0 |
Championship table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 14 | #510 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 13 | 14 | #327 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 14 | #641 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 14 | #719 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 12 | #303 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 11 | #887 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 8 | #275 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 7 | #538 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 5 | #905 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |