Derby vs Norwich prediction & odds
Derby host Norwich in the Championship (round 14) on Tuesday 03 November 2026. Derby are #538 in our world ranking and have drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5; Norwich are #303 and have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 235 places - in Norwich's favour.
Our prediction
Our model sees Derby v Norwich as close to a coin flip: Derby 32%, a draw 29%, Norwich 38%.
Rating: 1079
Chance to win: 32%
Last 5: DLLDD
Rating: 1166
Chance to win: 38%
Last 5: WLLLL
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
Derby are #538 and Norwich #303 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Norwich (38%). More from the Championship.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Norwich v Derby | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Derby v Norwich | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Norwich v Derby | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Derby v Norwich | 2-3 |
| 2021-04-10 | Derby v Norwich | 0-1 |
Championship table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 14 | #641 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 14 | #719 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 12 | #303 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 11 | #887 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 8 | #275 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 7 | #538 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 5 | #905 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |