Our model makes Estrela the favourites at 44%, with a draw at 28% and Casa Pia at 28%.
Estrela are #369 and Casa Pia #408 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Estrela (44%). More from the Primeira Liga.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Estrela v Casa Pia | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Casa Pia v Estrela | 3-5 |
| 2025-02-09 | Casa Pia v Estrela | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Estrela v Casa Pia | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-08 | Estrela v Casa Pia | 3-1 |
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11 | #192 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 11 | #72 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 10 | #369 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 8 | #394 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 8 | #264 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 7 | #147 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 7 | #312 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 5 | #226 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 4 | #413 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 4 | #408 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 2 | #317 |
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.