Our model makes Toluca the favourites at 43%, with a draw at 28% and Leon at 29%.
Leon are #688 and Toluca #293 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Toluca (43%). More from the Liga MX.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Toluca v Leon | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Toluca v Leon | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Leon v Toluca | 2-4 |
Toluca have won the last 3 meetings.
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 24 | #321 |
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | 21 | #293 |
| 3 | Atlas | 12 | 21 | #731 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 20 | #361 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 20 | #311 |
| 6 | Club Queretaro | 11 | 20 | #652 |
| 7 | Leon | 12 | 18 | #688 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 17 | #693 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 16 | #885 |
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.