Leones del Norte vs Libertad: result and our prediction
Leones del Norte host Libertad in the Liga Pro (Placement Group - 4) on Sunday 25 October 2026. Leones del Norte are #779 in our world ranking and have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5; Libertad are #487 and have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 292 places - in Libertad's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Libertad the favourites at 43%, with a draw at 28% and Leones del Norte at 29%.
Rating: 1017
Chance to win: 29%
Last 5: WLLDL
Rating: 1092
Chance to win: 43%
Last 5: LWWWL
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Leones del Norte are #779 and Libertad #487 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Libertad (43%). More from the Liga Pro.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Leones del Norte v Libertad | 4-1 |
| 2026-10-09 | Libertad v Leones del Norte | 3-0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Libertad v Leones del Norte | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Leones del Norte v Libertad | 1-1 |
Liga Pro table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 53 | #292 |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 51 | #611 |
| 6 | Libertad | 34 | 50 | #487 |
| 7 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 48 | #443 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 34 | 46 | #708 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 44 | #818 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 34 | 43 | #779 |
| 11 | Emelec | 34 | 42 | #778 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 40 | #937 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 |  Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 |  Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 |  LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 |  Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 |  Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 |  Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 |  Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |