Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction & odds
Lugo host Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Group 1 - 10) on Sunday 01 November 2026. Lugo are #696 in our world ranking and have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5; Mérida AD are #961 and have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 265 places - in Lugo's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Lugo the favourites at 49%, with a draw at 26% and Mérida AD at 25%.
Rating: 1032
Chance to win: 49%
Last 5: LWWWW
Rating: 973
Chance to win: 25%
Last 5: DWWWL
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Lugo are #696 and Mérida AD #961 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Lugo (49%). More from the Primera División RFEF.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mérida AD v Lugo | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lugo v Mérida AD | 1-0 |
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 22 | #696 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 20 | #610 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 16 | #951 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 15 | #962 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 14 | #588 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 14 | #877 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 13 | #986 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 13 | #907 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 13 | #961 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 13 | #733 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 12 | #1083 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 |  UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 |  Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 |  Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 |  Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 |  Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 |  Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 |  Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 |  Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 |  CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 |  UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 |  Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |