Marseille vs Toulouse prediction & odds
Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (round 9) on Sunday 01 November 2026. Marseille are #76 in our world ranking and have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5; Toulouse are #89 and have won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5. Two clubs within a few places of each other in the world ranking.
Our prediction
Our model makes Marseille the favourites at 45%, with a draw at 28% and Toulouse at 28%.
Rating: 1382
Chance to win: 45%
Last 5: WLWLW
Rating: 1358
Chance to win: 28%
Last 5: DWDWD
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille are #76 and Toulouse #89 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Marseille (45%). More from the Ligue 1.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Toulouse v Marseille | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille v Toulouse | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Marseille v Toulouse | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-06 | Marseille v Toulouse | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-31 | Toulouse v Marseille | 1-3 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nice | 9 | 14 | #103 |
| 8 | Lens | 9 | 13 | #40 |
| 9 | Marseille | 8 | 12 | #76 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 12 | #87 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 10 | #89 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 10 | #125 |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 9 | #130 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 |  Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 |  Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |