Millwall vs Derby prediction & odds
Millwall host Derby in the Championship (round 13) on Saturday 31 October 2026. Millwall are #284 in our world ranking and have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5; Derby are #538 and have drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 254 places - in Millwall's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Millwall the favourites at 54%, with a draw at 25% and Derby at 22%.
Rating: 1178
Chance to win: 54%
Last 5: LDLWD
Rating: 1079
Chance to win: 22%
Last 5: DLLDD
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall are #284 and Derby #538 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Millwall (54%). More from the Championship.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Millwall v Derby | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Derby v Millwall | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Derby v Millwall | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Millwall v Derby | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-23 | Derby v Millwall | 1-2 |
Championship table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 25 | #167 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 23 | #238 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 22 | #44 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 12 | 18 | #339 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 15 | #284 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 15 | #511 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 8 | #275 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 7 | #538 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 5 | #905 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |