Moreirense vs Estrela prediction & odds
Moreirense host Estrela in the Primeira Liga (round 10) on Saturday 31 October 2026. Moreirense are #268 in our world ranking and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5; Estrela are #429 and have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 161 places - in Moreirense's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Moreirense the favourites at 51%, with a draw at 26% and Estrela at 23%.
Rating: 1188
Chance to win: 51%
Last 5: WLLDW
Rating: 1110
Chance to win: 23%
Last 5: LWLLD
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
Moreirense are #268 and Estrela #429 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Moreirense (51%). More from the Primeira Liga.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Moreirense v Estrela | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Estrela v Moreirense | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Moreirense v Estrela | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Estrela v Moreirense | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Moreirense v Estrela | 2-2 |
Primeira Liga table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 11 | #250 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 11 | #95 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 11 | #268 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 10 | #148 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 10 | #429 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 8 | #220 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 8 | #454 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |