Our model makes Qarabag the favourites at 54%, with a draw at 25% and Neftchi Baku at 21%.
Qarabag are #201 and Neftchi Baku #386 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Qarabag (54%). More from the Premyer Liqa.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Neftchi Baku v Qarabag | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Neftchi Baku v Qarabag | 1-5 |
| 2025-11-09 | Qarabag v Neftchi Baku | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Qarabag v Neftchi Baku | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Neftchi Baku v Qarabag | 0-1 |
Qarabag have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 7 | 16 | #386 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 6 | 16 | #155 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 6 | 16 | #201 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | 11 | #688 |
| 5 | Zira | 7 | 11 | #572 |
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.