Toluca vs Monterrey prediction & odds
Toluca host Monterrey in the Liga MX (Apertura - 16) on Sunday 08 November 2026. Toluca are #300 in our world ranking and have drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5; Monterrey are #661 and have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 361 places - in Toluca's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Toluca the favourites at 56%, with a draw at 24% and Monterrey at 20%.
Rating: 1167
Chance to win: 56%
Last 5: DDDLD
Rating: 1044
Chance to win: 20%
Last 5: LWWDL
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca are #300 and Monterrey #661 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Toluca (56%). More from the Liga MX.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Toluca v Monterrey | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Monterrey v Toluca | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Toluca v Monterrey | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-04 | Monterrey v Toluca | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Toluca v Monterrey | 6-2 |
Toluca have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Liga MX table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 26 | #282 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 26 | #324 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 23 | #300 |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | 22 | #579 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 14 | 21 | #605 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 13 | 20 | #661 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 20 | #602 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 20 | #835 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 |  Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 27 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 5 |  Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 |  Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 |  Club Tijuana | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 |  Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 |  Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 13 |  CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 |  Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
First half of the season.