Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: result and our prediction
Toulouse host Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (round 8) on Sunday 25 October 2026. Toulouse are #90 in our world ranking and have won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5; Estac Troyes are #266 and have drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. On paper that's a big gap - 176 places - in Toulouse's favour.
Our prediction
Our model makes Toulouse the favourites at 63%, with a draw at 21% and Estac Troyes at 16%.
Rating: 1358
Chance to win: 63%
Last 5: DWDWD
Rating: 1189
Chance to win: 16%
Last 5: DLLLL
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Toulouse are #90 and Estac Troyes #266 in our world ranking of every senior club. Based on the two clubs' ratings and home advantage, the most likely result is Toulouse (63%). More from the Ligue 1.
Head to head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Toulouse v Estac Troyes | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-01 | Toulouse v Estac Troyes | 4-1 |
| 2022-08-14 | Estac Troyes v Toulouse | 0-3 |
| 2021-02-06 | Estac Troyes v Toulouse | 1-1 |
| 2020-10-03 | Toulouse v Estac Troyes | 0-0 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Club | P | Pts | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 12 | #88 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 11 | #125 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 10 | #90 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 10 | #126 |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 9 | #131 |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 8 | #206 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 7 | #261 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 7 | #82 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 5 | #266 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 2 | #225 |
How this is worked out
Every senior result from every country feeds one Elo rating system, so every club in the world sits on the same scale. Before each match the two ratings, adjusted for home advantage, give the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. See the full world ranking and every match today.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 |  Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 |  Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 |  Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 2 |